Huang Qifan: The era of oversupply of real estate in China is over

The era of oversupply of Chinese real estate is over

Editor's note

He made six trend judgments on the future development of China's real estate, including land supply, enterprise supply, cost-price supply, capital and money supply and other aspects. These trends are general internal trends and long-term effects., Long-term, fundamental, fundamental trends.

Huang Qifan authorized the "China Economic Weekly" to exclusively publish his long-form speech.

△ Photo by Xiao Yan, chief photographer of China Economic Weekly

1 Real estate market size

The sales volume of new homes in the next ten years will have a relatively large decline. This change is from the peak of these years to the inflection point, and the total amount of trends has shrunk.

Let's review how the total amount of Chinese real estate has increased over the past 20 years. In 1998 and 1999, the transaction sales volume of newly built real estate in China in one year had just reached 100 million square meters. Before 1990,There is no commercial housing transaction in China. Since 1990, there has been a real estate industry, and market-oriented reforms such as land leases for developers and mortgage loans for ordinary people to buy a house have been launched, reaching 100 million square meters in 1998 and 1999. Subsequently,From 1998 to 2008, the price has increased 6 times in the past 10 years. In fact, it may have increased 8 times. In 2007, the sales volume had reached almost 700 million square meters. However, the global financial crisis occurred in 2008. ChinaReal estate transaction volume also declined, shrinking to 600 million square meters. Five years later, around 2012, real estate transaction volume doubled, from 600 million square meters to 1.2 billion square meters. From 2012By 2018, it has increased by another 500 million square meters. In short, in the past 20 years, the annual sales volume of new real estate sales in China has increased from almost 100 million square meters to 1.7 billion square meters, more than quadrupling.

So, what will happen in the next ten years? Is it to maintain the status quo of 1.7 billion square meters a year and maintain it for more than 10 years, or continue to double every 5 or 10 years, 1.7 billion square meters become 3 billion square meters?Meters, 3.4 billion square meters? My judgment is that in the next ten years, China's annual real estate new house transaction volume will not only double the total growth, but will also shrink a small percentage each year, or zero growth, or negative growth.After a few years, the annual sales volume of new home sales in real estate may drop to less than 1 billion square meters, a roughly 40% reduction in total.

△ Huang Qifan

There are 4 reasons why the total amount of real estate transactions in the Chinese real estate industry has quadrupled in the past 20 years :

One is urbanization. In the past 20 years, China ’s urban population has been increasing. The urbanization rate of China ’s urban resident population has increased by nearly 26 percentage points. The urban population has expanded during the process of urbanization.People from small cities move to medium, large, and megacities, and the population migrates between cities. The expansion of the city's size has driven the growth of the real estate industry.

Second is the demolition and reconstruction of the old city. As the city expands, some factory areas and residential areas are demolished for the construction of transportation roads and business agglomeration areas. Various urban reconstructions due to planned functional layout adjustments can also produce relativelyLarge new house construction sales volume.

Third is the quality of housing. China's man-made houses, 50 years ago, the countryside was adobe houses, and the cities were brick houses. After the 1980s, the countryside was brick houses, and cities began to build reinforced concrete houses. Adobe houses are generallyIt will collapse in less than 10 years and need to be rebuilt; brick buildings are generally rebuilt in 15 to 20 years. The original reinforced concrete houses were basically built due to poor cement quality, poor rebar quality, and poor building structure.To be demolished and rebuilt.

Fourth, the per capita housing area increased. In 1990, the per capita housing area in China was only 6 square meters; by 2000, the per capita housing area in cities was only a dozen square meters. Now the per capita housing area in cities has reached 50 square meters. The original per capita housing areaSmaller areas will also generate demand for improved homes.

The above four factors will gradually fade out in the next ten years. First, the growth of the urbanization rate has slowed down and is approaching the inflection point. In the next ten years, it will increase from the current 60% to 70%. In short, the urbanization rateThe rise of the city is facing a ceiling phenomenon. It is impossible for urban population growth to slow down, and it is impossible to increase by a few percentage points each year. The demographic dividend of urbanization will gradually fade out. Second, the total amount of urban transformation will be reduced. After 20 years of urban transformationThe situation of the old city reconstruction and demolition will gradually fade away, and the total amount will be reduced on a large scale. Third, the basic balance of per capita housing area will not increase significantly. At present, the per capita housing area in China has reached 50 square meters, and the housing structure of families with difficultiesThe demand for sexual improvement has gradually dropped to a lower level. Although there will still be, it is only partially structural, rather than the overall per capita housing. The fourth is the improvement of housing quality. In 2012, the Ministry of Housing and Construction issued aThe construction quality standards of various commercial buildings such as office buildings have raised the safety standards of residential residential buildings in China for about 30 years to at least 70 years, or even 100 years.That is to say, the amount of depreciation and reconstruction in the old city will be greatly reduced. Assuming that this city has 1 billion square meters of houses, if it is calculated based on 30 years of depreciation, it will depreciate by one-third each year, and about 30 million square meters will be demolished and rebuilt..If it becomes 100 years, the average annual depreciation will become 10 million square meters.

From the above 4 trends, in the long period of more than ten years, China's real estate will overwhelm the annual sales volume of 1.67 billion square meters of new houses. This era is over. Last year was only 1.8% higher than the previous year.It is a signal. The real estate development trend in the next ten years will not be 1.7 billion, 1.8 billion, 2 billion, or 3 billion square meters, but it will gradually shrink. Of course, this shrinkage will not shrink by 20% in a large scale in a year., 30%, generally over the course of more than ten years, and gradually decline. After more than ten years, the annual sales volume has dropped below 1 billion square meters.

2 Where are the hotspots and key areas of real estate after the total amount shrinks

The state of the past ten years, whether it is a developed coastal area, or the central and western regions; whether it is a large city, a medium city, a small city, a district or a county city, in short, it is fully developed, real estate is everywhere, and it is a citizen.The era of the house-building movement. From now on, in the next ten years or so, real estate will not bloom on all sides, and there will be all-round heating in the east, west, south, and north, but there will still be hot spots in real estate. The total amount we say is 1.7 billion square meters a year.In the future, it may become 1.5 billion and 1.2 billion square meters a year. This construction volume and production volume are mainly reflected in three hot spots. One is the central city. The so-called central city refers to the same level areas in addition to provincial capital cities.For example, in addition to Jinan in Shandong Province, there is also a regional center city Qingdao in Guangdong Province; in addition to Guangzhou in Guangdong Province, there is also a central city of the same level in Shenzhen. The second is the metropolitan area. The super-large city radiation will form an urban area.Those small and medium-sized cities in the urban circle will become hot spots for real estate development. The third hot spot is the urban agglomeration. Large and medium-sized cities in the urban agglomerationAlso they tend to be the next ten years in real estate development hot spot.

Everyone can pay attention to the 10 super cities that have reached 10 million. They all have the potential to increase their population by more than 5 million in more than ten years. As long as the population increases, urban residential real estate will keep up. If it is already 2000For a mega city with a population of over 10,000, the core circle of the mega city itself has touched the ceiling, and its development will be concentrated in the metropolitan area. The radiation range of the metropolitan area will generally be 15,000 to 20,000 square kilometers. MetropolisThere will be some small and medium-sized cities in the circle. The development of these small and medium-sized cities alone does not generally constitute a hot spot, but once they enter the metropolitan area, these small and medium-sized cities will accelerate their development.

3 house price judgment

In the next ten years, house prices will stabilize, and neither will rise or fall significantly. The average growth rate of house prices will be less than or equal to the growth rate of GDP. The average transaction price of newly developed houses in cities across the country in 1998 was2,000 yuan per square meter, the national average rose to 8,800 yuan in 2018, and the big account said that it has quadrupled. If the local area is more than the local area, then whether it is the east or the west, it has more than tripled. For example, Chengdu 2000The average price of housing in the main city in the year was more than 1,000 yuan, which more than tripled to more than 10,000 yuan in 2017. Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Nanjing, Hangzhou and other hot-selling first-tier cities have basically tripled their house prices, up 8 times.In some particularly hot places, the income even increased by more than 10 times. In particularly hot first-tier cities, households ca n’t buy a house for 30 or 40 years without eating or drinking. The ratio of house prices to income is very high, compared to the world.The highest. In the past ten years, China's housing prices have the same trend as real estate development and production, which have doubled in five years, doubled in ten years, and tripled in seventeen or eighteen years.

What is the reason for supporting this state? There are basically three :

The first reason is the relationship between supply and demand. In the past 20 years, China's real estate has been in short supply. The process of per capita from 10 square meters to 20, 30, 40 square meters is a process of making up for the shortfall in the economy.Improving the scale of demand supports more and more of it. In the process of more and more, there is still a shortage of supply, which will cause housing prices to continue to rise.

The second reason is that the rise in housing prices is of course related to currency. Inflation is a currency phenomenon. China ’s M2 has been growing in double digits for almost a full decade from 2004 and 2005, more than 10% a year.The growth rate in several years is even more than 20%. Our M2 reached more than 190 trillion yuan in June this year and more than 180 trillion yuan last year. In 2004, M2 was actually more than 20 trillion yuan.That is to say, in more than ten years, M2 has tripled and increased 8 times. Of course, this money will affect the social economy. Real estate has absorbed a large amount of funds, real estate has become an absorber for M2 beyond growth, making the wholeThe price index of social goods has grown steadily, but housing prices have doubled every three years and every five years. The rise in housing prices in these years is also a phenomenon of inflation.

The third reason is that the price of real estate in a country will also be affected by external influences, exchange rates, and international purchasing power, and of course it will also be affected by the international economic crisis. The process of China's economic growth will attract foreign investment or purchase Chinesereal estate.

According to this forecast in the future, in terms of real estate supply and demand, we have entered into a situation in which there is still insufficient supply, but in general, the era of oversupply has ended and it has entered a stage of oversupply. Therefore, oversupply causes housing prices to riseThe impetus for housing prices has fallen.

From the perspective of inflation, China ’s M2 has reached 190 trillion. Will M2 quadruple in the next 10 years? Impossible. In the past two years, the country has delevered and stabilized finance to achieve the growth rate of M2.It is equal to the GDP growth rate plus the price index. The GDP growth rate in recent years is 6%, and the price index plus two points, so M2 is 8:00 in 2017 and 2018. From January to June this year8.5, this is basically the case. It can be predicted that in the next ten years, the M2 growth rate will basically maintain a balanced growth with the GDP growth rate plus the price index. The average growth rate of China's GDP in the next ten years will be about 5%.The growth of real estate prices will generally not exceed the growth rate of M2, and will generally not exceed the growth rate of GDP, and will generally be less than the growth rate of ordinary people's household income.

In short, China's urbanization is still in the process of development, and the urbanization rate still has 10% room for growth. Urban agglomerations, metropolitan areas, national central cities, and megacities are still developing. There is no substantial land price in China.The possibility of falling, China's housing prices will not fall sharply; but it will not have the historic phenomenon of doubling in five years, quadrupling in ten years. In the next ten years, housing prices willLeveling off, neither falling nor rising.

4 The number of real estate development companies will be reduced by more than two-thirds

There is a phenomenon in Chinese real estate that the number of real estate developers and real estate development companies is the highest in the world. There are no more than 500 registered real estate development companies in the 50 states in the United States in 2018. How many in China? According to the 2018Statistics show that there are a total of 97,000 real estate developers registered with the Industry and Commerce Bureau. There are more than 90,000 real estate companies in more than 800 million urban permanent residents formed by China's more than 500 million urban hukou population plus about 300 million foreign migrant workers.

Chinese real estate developers have three major characteristics: first, real estate companies are heterogeneous, scattered, and small. They are as large as trillions, and as small as several million. Second, they are layered. A large real estate company is registered in a certain province.In the future, to develop in each province, it will register a provincial development company in each of the twenty or thirty provinces. The five major developers, whether Vanke or Wanda, have hundreds of subsidiaries, layered. Third,There are many shell companies. Among the more than 90,000 real estate companies, the top 15% of the companies had 85% of the 1.7 billion square meters of development last year. That is, 15% of the companies solved almost 1.4 billion.Square meters, the remaining nearly 80,000 companies only did more than 200 million square meters, a large number of shell companies. Shell companies in the downturn are shells, when it is frenzied, it is chaotic fundraising, chaotic land, Chaotic development. This phenomenon is a result of extensive development over the past dozen years.

In the next ten years or so, based on the high-quality transformation of the real estate industry and the trend of reducing the total amount of development, real estate development companies will inevitably have a significant reduction and shrinking process. How much will they lose? I think at least threeFor two-tenths, the number of Chinese real estate development enterprises will not exceed 30,000 in ten years.

In the adjustment and development of real estate, it will shrink from 4 tracks. The first is the shrinking of real estate companies. Super-large real estate companies will shrink their second-, third-, and fourth-tier real estate companies, which may reduce real estate.Investment is concentrated in provincial capitals, metropolitan areas, and urban agglomerations, especially cities with populations in the megacities that have grown from 10 million to 20 million. They will no longer be spread across the country for administrative distribution and will shrink at levels.The total number of children and grandson companies has shrunk. The second one is the cancellation of the annual industrial and commercial inspection. In the past few years, due to the low threshold when entering the market, the company became a shell company soon after entering the market.It is a state of our previous industrial and commercial registration. In the future, it will be cancelled if it fails to pass the annual inspection. Third, the real estate company will change. A considerable number of real estate developers will take the initiative to switch in the case of the shrinking market size and the decline of real estate business in some cities.Four, mergers and acquisitions.

These four aspects will constitute a substantial decline in the number of real estate development companies.

5 The overall debt ratio of real estate developers will drop significantly

The high debt ratio of Chinese real estate developers is also the highest in the world. The total debt ratio of more than 90,000 real estate developers in China was 84% ​​last year. The debt ratio of the top 10 real estate developers with sales scales of about 1 trillion is also81%. The entire Chinese real estate development model is a large-scale infrastructure construction and large-scale loan development model with very low net capital. It is like a trading company and a circulation company. It is in turnover. It is reflected in the three aspects of land lease, development and construction, and sales pre-sale.All links are run with high debt.

First of all, the money to buy land, basically not relying on own funds, but to rely on loans to finance. The money to buy the land is piled up behind the bank trust, and the 1 billion land price is auctioned into 2 billion, followed by the bank'sMoney, so developers can speculate on the "land king" without being bound by their own money, and dare to double the land price. The higher the land price speculation, the higher the developer ’s original reserve land value.Asset credit is higher, so developers have no fear of high land prices. This is a phenomenon that buys land by financing and loans.

△ Photo by Xiao Yan, chief photographer of China Economic Weekly

Development loans can come from banks, trusts, and of course, corporate bonds. Bonds are still a debt. Some small real estate developers with poor credit can't borrow money from banks and trusts, and they can't issue bonds, which will mess up.Raising funds, borrowing usury, and engaging in sale and leaseback. The so-called sale and leaseback is that the real estate agent sells the house for leaseback. The lease rental fee is 15% per year, which is equivalent to collecting interest with high interest. In fact, the real estate agent borrows usury for development.

Again, use the advantage of real estate to take advantage of the client ’s interest-free funds. For example, pre-sale of houses, deposits are paid as soon as the foundation is laid, and pre-sale houses are sold before the roof is capped; the construction process allows the construction party to advance fundsConstruction, the formation of construction arrears, the entire development process is a process of overdue debts.

It is the above-mentioned three types of operating overdraft models that have formed a debt ratio of over 80% for Chinese developers. Developers often regard it as an achievement of their own strong financial operating ability. Overdue debtsIn China, bank loans are normal interest rates, and trusts are generally twice as high as bank interest rates. If the funds are randomly raised, the interest rate is 17% -18%. In this case, how do real estate developers balance the interest on this funding chain?Deposits and pre-sale do not pay interest; there is another way is to let others do the construction for you, so that the construction unit must bring funds for construction without interest. A real estate agent may have 30% or even 40% of its liabilities.The money is interest-free debt, and the real estate agent feels that it is cheap. All this kind of operation, when the real estate is normal, the trend is upward, and the capital chain is not broken, the real estate agent will make a lot of money. But once the counter-cycle occurs, the funds are withdrawnIf it is not in place, the capital chain is broken, and high interest debts will cause him to jump off the building. Many real estate developers have problems, such as when the counter-cyclical, economic downturn, and real estate sales are difficult in various aspects.Like the case of a explosive mines, this phenomenon is necessary to get rid of.

We went to see that this is not the case for real estate developers in the world. Hong Kong real estate is considered to be the birthplace of Chinese real estate, but the average debt ratio of Hong Kong real estate companies is generally around 30%. It also sells off-plan properties, and it also uses bank loans, but it has more.Own capital of 60%, 70% of the net assets formed by the profits made by myself. Do Hong Kong real estate developers come to the Mainland, have the debt ratio become very high? No, the entire Hong Kong real estate businessIn the case of a real estate legal person, the general debt ratio is also 40%, and the 80% that we are talking about does not appear. In this sense, real estate developers in the Mainland have to change their behavior.

In the next ten years or more, the real estate industry in the new era will see a fundamental change in the high debt situation of real estate companies. First, land lease debt. The source of money for land purchase will be controlled. The country had a system 15 years ago.The real estate agent buys the land, and the land lease money must be its own capital, but there has been almost no supervision in place for more than a decade. As long as the controls are in place, the land speculation money is generally not allowed to the financial institutions, and the high debt ratio of land leases will beDecrease. Second is the pre-sale specification. Pre-sale can only start when real estate production is to the ceiling of the structure of the house and when the real estate begins to be refined. Instead of just starting a pile to sell off-plan properties, this will allow interest-free funds and pre-sale.2. The phenomenon of mortgage loan to buy a house will be reduced, the real estate agent's debt rate will also be reduced, the phenomenon of overdrafts can be greatly reduced, and the phenomenon of long-term advancement of construction units will be controlled. Third, the business model will be changed. Real estate development will be sold from 100%When the development model is transformed into a model of partial sales and some long-term leases, the asset-liability ratio will also decrease.This method solves the lease, but uses a high-interest loan method for long-term loans. The cost of the lease is not enough to pay the interest, and the bankruptcy of the capital chain will lead to bankruptcy. If the leased asset is in the form of capital, it will be leased for a long time.Rents are directly funded in the form of REITs, which is a form of capital operation and is different from commercial bank loans. This explains why there are so many REITs companies in Hong Kong. It can be seen that China ’s real estate business model, highThe debt model will inevitably be completely changed in the next ten years, and the debt ratio will definitely fall from 80% to less than 50%, between 40% and 50%.

6 land supply model

We used to supply land in the east, west, north, south, and in the reverse direction. The more small and medium-sized cities, the looser the land supply, but the actual expansion demand of these cities is very low. We have a phobia of city size and generally require small cities to leaveIn this sense, to support the development of small towns and medium-sized cities, restrictions begin to be reached when the population exceeds 5 million, and they are capped when the population exceeds 10 million. In this sense, land supply policies have emerged.The larger the city, the larger the population, and the larger the amount of construction, the tighter the land supply, of course, the higher the land price. If the land is in short supply, the land price will rise. The general floor price is one-third of the local commodity house price.The floor price is 10,000 yuan per square meter. After the house is built, the general price must be 34,000 to 41,000 square meters. Therefore, to reduce house prices and control house prices, it is very important to control land prices and reduce land prices.High land prices increase urban land supply. In the next ten years, in accordance with the development requirements of high-quality real estate transformation,According to the principle of "planning to go along with industry, along with industry people to go along with population and industrial land to go" to the supply of land.

In this process, we can use an adjective called "crawling and staring." Take a step and look at it. The population is not in one step and the land is not in one step. But the land can be advanced and the population will be 10 million.When the population reaches 20 million, it is a process of “crawling and staring.” However, it is no longer a loose supply of land in small and medium cities, and the reverse regulation of tight supply in large cities, so that there will not be only two or three hundred in some small places in the west.Million people, but given five to six hundred square kilometers of urban space. We all know that one person averages 10,000 square meters, and one million people is a city of 100 square kilometers. Too much is a waste of land resources. In this sense, ChinaFor small and medium-sized cities in the west, land should be given, and support should be encouraged, but bubbles cannot be encouraged, and hollowing out cannot be encouraged.

Conversely, of the three hot spots mentioned above, of course, the land must be positively encouraged. Some cities are now close to 20 million people. The area of ​​urban built-up areas is only over 1,000 square kilometers, so land prices will appear.It is particularly high. For example, Shenzhen only gave 2,000 square kilometers in 1980 when hundreds of thousands of people had a GDP of 200 million yuan. Now it has reached nearly 20 million people with a GDP of more than 2 trillion yuan. It is still the same as before.Give it to the land. This is an urban layout. I believe that in the next ten years, Chinese cities will accurately supply land according to planning, population, and industry needs, so as to avoid unreasonable spatial layout caused by land shortage and landThe shortage of land has caused abnormally high land prices, and the lack of land has hindered the development of the industry.

Another problem in our past urban development is that rural land resources are split from urban land resources, and there is no flow of optimal allocation of resources. The process of urbanization around the world is the process of increasing agricultural arable land, and China ’sIn the past 40 years, the cultivated land in rural areas has been steadily decreasing. Many Chinese economic experts or administrative managers will think that the urbanization process will irresistibly reduce the cultivated land. Therefore, urbanization must be very economical in land use. This is also the rising land price in the process of Chinese real estate.For one reason.

Why does the country ’s 200-year urbanization process not show a decrease in rural arable land, but an increase? That ’s because anyone in the countryside will generally occupy constructive land in addition to arable land, and everyone in the countryside will generally occupy 250 to 300 square meters.Because the city is a high-rise building, which is more intensive and economical in all aspects, the per capita construction land and urbanization land of the city is 100 square meters. This is the same whether it is Europe, the United States, or China. In this case,If 100 million people enter the city, the constructive land in the countryside can theoretically be reduced by 25 billion to 30 billion square meters, and the urban area needs to be expanded by 10 billion square meters.There will be more than 10,000 square kilometers of cultivated land. From this perspective, of course, the process of urbanization is a process of increasing the cultivated land in the countryside and the entire country. Why hasn't this happened in China in the past 40 years? Because our farmers areThose occupying both ends will always work in the factory when entering the city. In the end, the land will always be occupied. Per capita 100 square meters is rigid, so we have 3Of course, more than 100 million migrant workers have increased 30,000 square kilometers of urbanized land in the city. However, after the peasants entered the city, the constructive land occupied by the local people in the rural area did not withdraw from 300 square meters per capita, and the city occupied 100 square meters.Meters, the rural area occupies 300 square meters, and both ends are occupied. In this way, the special phenomenon of China's urbanization process in which cultivated land is only reduced or not increased. In urbanization development, cultivated land can no longer be reduced. This is a bottom line to keep. This is very importantIt is the balance of construction and land resource allocation between urban and rural areas. If 100 million mu is requisitioned in the city, the construction land in rural areas will be reduced by 100 million mu, forming a link between increase and decrease of construction land between urban and rural areas.The amount remains the same, and the total cultivated land remains the same.

The balance between constructive land use and compensation in urban and rural areas, and optimal allocation of resources, there is a problem of land tickets. If farmers enter the city, the rural homestead is useless, this house occupies the homestead, and the old in the mountainsThe house can only be sold for tens of thousands of yuan, but turning this house into cultivated land and forming a land ticket can sell 2 to 300,000 land tickets for an acre of cultivated land. Of course, farmers have enthusiasm. Transforming the house site into cultivated land,Get the corresponding one-mu land ticket and sell it to developers in large cities on the land ticket exchange. The construction land index that originally required land acquisition and rent does not pass administrative approval, but buys a market-based land ticket index.After you buy it, you will requisition land in your own big city. In the past 10 years, this has already been practiced in some provinces. These provinces set up land ticket exchanges in central cities, and then put 300,000 mu in the countryside in the past 30 years.Homesteads have become arable land, and real estate agents bought these 300,000 mu of land at a price of more than 201,000 acres and engaged in real estate development in the city. The land indicators of real estate development can be compared without restrictions.Adequate supply, land prices will not be too high. 30 acres of rural land twenty tens of thousands of acre to get six or seven billion. This sixty-seven ten billion has become an important source of funding farmers to get rich.

After the land ticket test in some provinces, the country has now started the nationwide land ticket test. For example, in 2018, a certain province in the west put construction land in the past in the countryside, some of which were idle homesteads and some wereAbandoned abandoned elementary schools in the countryside or some idle warehouses in the countryside, etc., reclaimed them as cultivated land. They reduced these constructive land and increased tens of thousands of acres of cultivated land. These tens of thousands of acres of land votes were used as indicators of the balance of construction land replenishmentAllocated by the Ministry of Land and Resources to large coastal cities such as Shanghai, Beijing, etc. These cities have more than 10 billion yuan at the price of 300,000 or 500,000 acres to buy tens of thousands of acres of construction land indicators, real estate urban land in large coastal citiesThe index was relaxed. However, the 10 billion yuan was allocated to the west in the allocation of resources, and large cities were fed back to the large rural areas, and the west could have 10 billion more funds for development. This fund was not given to the provincial and municipal finance bureaus, but toThe rural collective organization was given to rural farmers. It should be said that this type of land-ticket transaction linked to the increase and decrease of construction land between urban and rural areas and between east and west forms aMarket-based resource allocation. If there are hundreds of thousands of acres of land tickets in the country each year to achieve the balance of occupation, it will optimize the allocation of market-based resources, increase the land supply of large cities, and meet the land needs of urbanization development.The big cities pay back hundreds of billions of yuan each year, and the trillions in ten years become an important bonus for the overall urban-rural reform. I believe that the matter explored in the past 10 years will become China's integrated urban-rural land development in the next 10 years.A fundamental reform measure.

The above are the six major trend judgments. These six trends include land supply, enterprise supply, cost price supply, and capital and money supply. In general, these changes on the supply side will affectAll aspects of society and the changes affecting every other aspect of the entire real estate, because it is fundamental and backbone, its changes will form changes in all aspects of the entire real estate industry.

Author: Huang Qifan

Source: China Economic Weekly

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