Can we still get cheap takeaway in ten years?

In 2003, Mr. Cui Weiping, who studied in Japan, successfully transferred his idle digital camera through Alipay. This was the first transaction in Alipay. Today, this transaction order is still hanging on the wall of the first floor of the Alipay building.In a way, this is the starting point of China's Internet business.

At that time, no one could have imagined that China's Internet was developing so fast. In just 15 years, Internet commerce has become a big climate in China. People are gradually getting used to cashless living, and most of their consumption is done on mobile phones.

In 2018, according to a report issued by a payment institution, it can be inferred that Alipay's annual transactions were about 197.5 billion, and Alipay's old counterpart, Tenpay, was as high as 460 billion.

And an important part of supporting such a huge business system is the mass of young people engaged in express delivery and takeaway. Just like in the 1980s and 1990s, domestic manufacturing industries have enjoyed huge "demographic dividends"., Internet commerce has also gained a wave of "demographic dividend".

Manufacturing factory assembly line work is boring and tedious. In contrast, although the delivery of food and express delivery is also very hard, it has higher degrees of freedom and higher income. After the economic crisis in 2008, more and more youngPeople are unwilling to enter the factory again when they are looking for a job. They choose to send express or takeaway jobs. A large amount of labor supply has brought a “demographic dividend” to the Internet industry.

Compared to the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan and other countries, domestic consumers have lower costs and better services for online shopping and ordering takeaways. In order to compete for more market share, courier companies and takeaway companies have also fought price wars.Disguising subsidies for users, which has also accelerated the development of consumers' online spending habits to a certain extent.

But just like the "recruitment difficulties" in the manufacturing industry these years, with the rise of domestic workers' wages and increased labor security requirements, the express delivery industry may soon face similar problems, such as "recruitment difficulties" and "high costs"When these operating pressures are translated into the terminal, they appear as "price increases." After consumers have become accustomed to online shopping, when the courier and takeaway companies subsidize the war, the "price increases" in courier and takeaway costs may not be avoided.

The business of express delivery is essentially a game of transporting orders. The more tickets a single vehicle carries, the larger the profit margin that can be squeezed out. An analysis of the cost structure of the express company shows that the average daily order volume reached 1,000.When 10,000, the level of automation is very high, and its cost has almost reached the limit of compression, and the drop space is very small.

On the other hand, express delivery has a very high investment entry threshold, which means that the price war of express delivery may soon be over, and small and medium players will be cleared one after another.

According to the data released by the State Post Office: In the first three quarters of 2018, the market concentration index CR8 of express and parcel service brands was 81.5, a year-on-year increase of 3.7. Market share and factors accelerated the concentration of key companies, and the eight major express companies SF, JD.com, Debang, Zhongtong, Shentong, Yuantong, Yunda, Best The gap with small and medium-sized express delivery companies is widening rapidly.

In the take-out market, the industry's accelerated concentration is even more pronounced. Analysis of the Digital Process of the Internet Catering and Take-out Industry by Analysys released by Analysys shows that in the third quarter of 2019, Meituan's take-out transactions accounted for 65.1%.Are you hungry? The transaction volume accounts for 27.4%, and the two platforms add up and monopolize more than 90% of the takeaway transaction volume.

In fact, after the US delegation has secured its position as the takeaway boss, it has started to significantly reduce user subsidies and increase merchant promotions. The US second quarter 2019 financial report shows that the company's second quarter revenue was 22.7 billionYuan, an increase of 50.6% year-on-year, and realized a profit of 876 million yuan, which is the first overall profit of the US Mission in nine years.

Wang Xing, founder of Meituan said that with the gradual increase in the total business volume, Meituan's takeaway has continuously reduced the red envelopes of takeaway users and increased the proportion of merchants. This is an important reason for Meituan's profit.

More in-depth analysis, merchants also do business. The US group must increase the percentage, which means a loss of profit. To make up for this loss, you must either sell it from the US group or raise the price of the product.It means that ultimately the user will bear the higher distribution costs.

With the development of the economy, when the income of front-line workers in our country continues to increase, even to the level of blue-collar workers in developed countries, we may never be able to eat such a cheap takeaway as today.

Wen | Zhibensha

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