What is the probability of a human messenger flying outside the solar system being destroyed in space?

2020-06-15 | Space-time communication original |

Someone asked why the probability of two Voyager hitting anything is almost zero, so they can fly all the time?

The probability of hitting is definitely not zero, but "almost" is similar.

This is because the universe is empty, only 1x10^-28 kg/m^3, which means that all visible matter in the universe adds up to the universe, and there is only one particle per cubic meter. The average temperature of the universe is about3K, that is -270.15℃.

Traveller 1 and 2 are unmanned probes launched by NASA in 1977 of the last century. They have successively detected Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune. After completing the mission of the solar system probe, they are going out of the solar system as planned.Fly away, the farthest flying is Voyager 1.

As of 13:08 today, the real-time monitoring data of Voyager 1 on the NASA website shows that Voyager 1 is 223.559 km away from the sun at a speed of 17km/s relative to the sun; 33.8km/s relative to the earth, and is close to the earth22,224 million km away from the solar system. See screenshot above

The real-time monitoring data of Voyager 2 on the NASA website shows that Voyager 2 is at 18.564 billion km from the sun at a speed of 15.3km/s relative to the sun; at a speed of 27.6km/s relative to the earth, it is 184.58 from the earth100 million kilometers away, fly out of the solar system. see screenshot above

Man-made detectors must fly into deep space, and it is the most dangerous at the door.

This is because there are several asteroid dense areas in the solar system. The threat of collision in these areas is hundreds of millions of times greater than the deep space impact probability of the solar system.

There is an asteroid main belt between Mars and Jupiter’s orbits 2.17~3.64 astronomical units from the sun, where there are more than 500,000 asteroids, and there are 120,000 already numbered.

Another one is outside the orbit of Neptune, between 40 and 50 astronomical units from the sun, and there is an icy Kuiper belt, which is considered to be the edge of the solar system. It is a gathering zone of ice dwarf planets, ice asteroids, and comets.How many small celestial bodies there are is still inconclusive, probably between tens of thousands and hundreds of thousands. After Pluto was expelled from the planetary team, he could not make Phoenix tail, and became the chicken head here, mixing between these little brothers,Happy getaway.

The true gravity range of the solar system recognized by the scientific community is about 1 light-year radius. From the outer edge of the Kuiper Belt to the edge of 1 light-year away, it is considered to have an Oort cloud belt.

In this vast area, it is a paradise for comets. It is very cold, close to absolute zero, and water vapor is mixed with space dust to condense into a dirty snowball comet, sometimes the aggregation increases, sometimes the collision and fragmentation, and occasionally a fewFlying to the sun becomes a comet we can see.

According to some astronomers, there are hundreds of billions of comets here, even trillions.

Asteroid belt, Kuiper belt, Oort cloud belt, this is the three levels that human detectors must pass to fly to the outside of the solar system. Only through these three levels successfully can we stand out from the solar system.

The probability of a spaceship hitting an asteroid or debris in the solar system is also extremely small.

If we think about it, we will understand that we look up at the night sky and see that the thousands of stars in the sky are all outside the solar system. If the asteroid belt, Kuiper belt, and Otter cloud belt painted on the network picture are allSo dense, can we still see a starry night sky?

A few days ago, I answered a question about whether 99% of the speed of light spacecraft would be destroyed by space debris. A density calculation of the comet density of the Oort cloud belt was carried out. I will not repeat it in detail here. Interested partiesYou can go to check it out. The calculation result here is that even if there are really 1 trillion comets, they are evenly distributed on the sphere one light year from the sun, and each comet covers an area of ​​1,000 trillion km^2.The distance between each comet reaches 31.62 million km. And we are only 384,000 km from the moon. If we launch a spaceship, if it is not aimed at the moon, will it hit the moon?

In fact, the Oort cloud is not a sphere, but a thickness of nearly 1 light-year from the back of the Kuiper belt, so even if there are 10 trillion comets, its sparse density is beyond our imagination. Don’tSaid to be hit is that you want to find one that is countless times more difficult than the S6 Lottery Jackpot.

There are currently four artificial probes flying outside the solar system, and they are flying away from the solar system from different directions.

They are Voyager 1, 2 and Pioneer 10 and 11. These four probes were all launched by NASA in the last century. They have already flown through the orbit of Neptune and entered the Kuiper Belt.There was no impact hazard.

The earliest launch was Pioneer 10, launched in March 1972. It was the first spacecraft to observe Jupiter at close range. It flew through the orbit of Neptune in 1983 and flew toward the edge of the Milky Way outside the solar system. The goal is 65 from us.Bisu five years in light years, when the speed was 12.3km/s, it took more than 1.58 million to fly there. It ended the solar system mission in 1997, and lost power due to the exhaustion of the equipped radioisotope fuel in 2003, and the groundLost contact.

The Pioneer 11 was launched in April 1973. It detected Jupiter and Saturn, and leaped over the ring of Saturn. It was a pathfinder for the Voyager No. 1 and No. 2 who were about to follow.It explored how to traverse the orbit of Saturn’s rings for later generations, took many photos of Saturn, and flew out of the solar system.

Because of its faster power consumption, Pioneer 11 closed its contact in 1995. At that time, it was about 44.7 astronomical units away from the sun. It flew at a speed of about 12km/s from the outer line of Neptune’s orbit toward the center of the Milky Way. 400Will arrive in Aquila in 10,000 years.

Traveller 1 and 2 were later launched, but because of the faster speed, they have already surpassed the previous two detectors.

These two more advanced detectors not only detected Jupiter and Saturn, but also detected Uranus and Neptune. They also ended the mission long ago. The ground no longer controls and commands them, and the remaining little power,Some basic information can also be sent back. Voyager 1 is the fastest and farthest of these probes. It is flying in the direction of a star Centauri, reaching the nearest one to the sun after about 74,000 years.Stellar to Proximity Star. Voyager 2 will fly to another star at close range, 6 light-years away from Barnard Star, and it will take about 120,000 years to get there.

The power of the Voyager 1 and 2 detectors can only be supplied until 2025, by which time the power failure will be unable to start any instruments, and humans will never get any news from them, but they will also be faithfulAccording to the route given by humans, it continues to fly by inertia. The above picture is the Voyager 1 detector and its golden disc

These probes are the pioneers of human exploration of space.

Humans rely on these detectors to greatly understand the situation of the solar system, and only have pictures of the major planets, dwarf planets, and satellites of the solar system on the Internet today. They are the earliest human friends of machines, for humans.The development of civilization has made great contributions.

These detectors have sent back a lot of data, which has not been cracked so far, enough for scientists to digest for a while.

They are now flying out of the solar system without complaint, with information about the solar system, the earth and humans on their bodies. After 1 billion years, in the vacuum environment of space, this information will not disappear, or even be as new.

But at that time, will humans still exist? No one can be sure, even the traces of human existence may have been wiped out. If these detectors are discovered by extraterrestrial civilizations, they may become the only evidence of human existence.

In the vast space, only in a star system, the celestial bodies are relatively dense. In the deep space environment, there is almost no possibility of collision. These detectors are safe except for loneliness.

Thank you for reading and welcome to discuss.

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