The cold winter sign event is coming? NOAA confirms 80% of La Niña, how cold is it this winter?

On September 9, 2021, NOAA published a concise but very positive summary description on the "ENSO Alert System Status: La Ni?a Watch" page:

Synopsis: A transition from ENSO-neutral to La Ni?a is favored in the next couple of months, with a 70-80% chance of La Ni?a during the Northern Hemisphere winter 2021-22.

Summary: In the next few months, ENSO will transition from neutral to La Niña. The probability of La Niña in the northern hemisphere winter in 2021-22 is 70-80%.

Friends who are familiar with the global climate system must know that there will be a cold winter this year! Is this really the case? Will La Niña really bring cold winters? What other climate events will be relatedarrival?

August/September/October 2021 North American Multi-Model Ensemble NMME Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Prediction Map

Is there a relationship between the La Niña phenomenon and the super typhoon "Santo"?

Another corresponding to the La Niña phenomenon is the El Niño phenomenon, which is mainly caused by a Walker circulation, which is caused by the uneven temperature on the east and west sides of the Pacific Ocean. The western Pacific Ocean is warmer, and the air is heated and expands and rises to the east and west.When these updrafts reach the Pacific Ocean on the western side of Peru and Ecuador through the circulation, they are cooled down and form a descending high pressure.

Walker Circulation in the Pacific Ocean

These falling high-pressure air formed the southeast trade wind and returned to the western sun from low altitude. This is the Walker Circulation. Its existence will blow the surface water of the eastern Pacific close to the American side to the western Pacific close to Indonesia.

The distribution of temperature difference in the Pacific Ocean in August 2021

When the Walker Circulation is strong, it will strip the warm sea water of the eastern Pacific Ocean and send it to the West Pacific, which will cause the temperature of the West Pacific to rise compared with the East Pacific, which will form the La Niña phenomenon.

When the Walker circulation is very weak or even reverse, it will cause abnormal heating of the East Pacific, causing the West Pacific to transport heat to the East Pacific. This is the El Nino phenomenon.

El Niño and La Niña are collectively referred to as El Niño-Southern Oscillation El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation abbreviation: ENSO, so ENSO in the NOAA website above is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation observation.

What is the relationship between La Nina and the super typhoon "Santo"?

When the 14th typhoon "Santo" was generated on the Northwest Pacific Ocean at 8 o'clock on September 7, 2021, it was not noticeable at all. A tropical storm, far away, but its rapid development makes peopleLooking sideways, by 5 o'clock on September 8, it had been upgraded to four levels in a row and reached a super typhoon.

And its future route is affected by the outer air currents of another typhoon Conson, the continental subtropical high and the Pacific subtropical high, and the influence of the northern cold vortex. Its direction is unpredictable, and the strange route of the autumn typhoon in history has beenMakes meteorologists dumbfounded.

Why is Typhoon Chando so strong?

The surface of the Northwest Pacific Ocean generated by the autumn typhoon has been exposed to the three seasons of spring, summer and autumn, so the typhoon will be stronger if the water surface is warmer than summer, but the situation this year is different from previous years. The strong Walker circulationBrings warm waters from the surface of the East Pacific, making the surface of the West Pacific warmer.

The abnormal distribution of Pacific water temperature on September 1, 2021

Therefore, it can be analyzed from a very simple reason that the typhoon generated in the western Pacific is much stronger than in previous years. Now, the meteorological bureaus of various countries are also arguing about where Chandu is going. The future direction is rubbing.The probability of Zhejiang going to Japan is relatively high, and after Chandu, it cannot be ruled out that a typhoon of greater magnitude in the West Pacific will be generated.

La Nina phenomenon appears, how cold will it be this winter?

The global climate is controlled by the atmospheric circulation, which affects the whole body. The atmospheric circulation caused by El Niño and La Niña is completely opposite. It definitely affects the weather everywhere. For example, the El Niño phenomenon in 1997 caused extreme drought in Indonesia., There has been a forest fire unprecedented in Indonesian history.

Then what kind of winter will the La Niña phenomenon bring?

The La Niña year from 2007 to 2008 is undoubtedly the greatest impact on our country. On November 1, 2007, the World Meteorological Organization warned on its official website that "La Niña has formed and will continue until 2008."The sea-level temperature in the central and eastern regions is 1.5 degrees Celsius lower than in the past, which is moderate compared to previous years.

The Pacific Ocean Water Temperature Abnormal in November 2007

From this global ocean temperature anomaly distribution, you can clearly see the equatorial region. The temperature of the East Pacific near the Americas is obviously much lower than that of the West Pacific. This is a typical La Niña phenomenon.

Snow disaster in southern China in 2008

From January 10, 2008, China has experienced large areas of low-temperature freezing and blizzards and other disastrous weather. The blizzard caused the interruption of railways, highways and civil aviation. The freezing rain caused a large number of power lines to overwhelm and collapse, and electricity and communications were severely affected.At that time, during the Spring Festival travel period, a large number of passengers were stranded.

The reason is that the long-term meridional distribution of the circulation since January 2008 has led to frequent cold air activity in the north, and the subtropical high is relatively strong.Trough is relatively active, the warm and humid air from the south and the cold air from the north converge in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, forming a blizzard.

Electric worker repairs

How cold will it be in the winter of 2021?

On October 28, 2020, the article "La Niña Will Bring Colder Winter?" published by Xinhuanet, quoted the opinion of Ding Yihui, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering.Prone to cold winter"!

From the existing statistics, there have been 5 La Niña incidents since 2000. From the perspective of the 5 La Niña incidents, the average temperature in parts of eastern Inner Mongolia, Northeast China, and North China in winter is 1℃ lower than normal.2℃, in some areas it is lower than 2℃.

Facts also prove that Academician Ding Yihui’s judgment is accurate. The cold wave of the New Year's Eve from 2020 to 2021 really caught everyone off guard:

The average temperature drop in Jiangsu and Zhejiang exceeded 14-16 degrees Celsius, and the temperature in some mountainous areas in northern Zhejiang even exceeded 16 degrees Celsius. Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and northwestern Guangxi, and northwest Fujian also fell by 14-16 degrees. Guangdong, Fujian and GuangxiPartial cooling rate exceeds 12 degrees

So the cold wave at the end of 2020 is nicknamed the "Overlord" cold wave, and 2020~2021 is a La Niña year, so everyone's judgment is that there will be a cold winter in 2021~2022. Is this really the case??

From the statistics of the past 13 La Niña years, cold winters do account for the majority, but not all cold winters. For example, during the winter La Niña years from 1998 to 1999, the temperature in most parts of my country was relatively high, but 1998 was a special year for a super El Niño to La Niña. At that time, the atmospheric temperature increase caused by El Niño did not subside.

So judging from big data, it is not unexpected to encounter a cold winter from 2021 to 2022, but the atmospheric circulation is an extremely complex system, and it cannot be based on past historical data. We can only judge from the probability.The possibility of winter is still very large. As for how cold it is, it is probably not easy to say. As long as it is not Blizzard, it is still acceptable to be colder.

Reference:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

http://rmfp.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2017/0220/c406725-29092248.html

http://news.un.org/zh/story/2007/11/84552

http://www.xinhuanet.com/politics/2020-10/28/c_1126665712.htm


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